Thursday, June 26, 2008

1. Information and Decisions

Knowledge is never perfect, and the longer the time between a decision and its consequences, the wider the gray area of uncertainty.
Thomas Sowell

The trading advantage that comes from information is a result of the information’s timeliness as well as its volume. If a party to a trade has as much information as the other trading partners, but his information came after the terms of the trade had been agreed upon, he bargained with a substantial disadvantage and most likely did not get as much profit from the trade as he should have. If an investor has several investment opportunities that are alternatives to each other, he needs to have information prior to making his investment. To have value as intellectual capital, information must not only be relevant and reliable – it must also be timely. See Banking the Past.

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